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PAFI Interactive Session on Trade and Competitiveness

PAFI - 24 September 2026 - 07-21-31 PM.mp4 · 1:08:19 · 6 speakers

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Key takeaways

  1. Speaker 1 presented India’s trade strategy as oriented toward fair, equitable and balanced agreements negotiated from a position of economic confidence.
  2. Speaker 1 stated that existing and near-complete agreements provide access to economies totaling approximately $70 trillion in GDP, with further negotiations potentially adding $15 trillion.
  3. Speaker 1 argued that AI should be embraced through skilling, cybersecurity capabilities and human oversight, rather than viewed chiefly as a source of job loss.
  4. Quality, mutual recognition of standards, scale, trusted investment conditions and infrastructure were presented as key sources of India’s future competitiveness.
  5. Direct shipping connectivity remains an acknowledged challenge; Speaker 1 said regulatory reforms and Indian-flagged vessels are intended to help address it.
  6. The government is reviewing its model BIT, according to Speaker 1, in response to investment-community expectations around dispute resolution.
  7. Speaker 1 set a stated current-year total export target of $1 trillion and described broader FTAs as vehicles for global value-chain integration.

Key moments

  • Session opening
    Speaker 2 welcomes Speaker 1 and frames an interactive discussion.
  • FTA strategy overview
    Speaker 1 begins a long overview of India’s changed trade-negotiation approach.
  • Trade-access scale
    Speaker 1 cites nine agreements and $60 trillion of preferential market access, building to a stated $70 trillion umbrella.
  • Competitiveness and jobs challenge
    Speaker 3 links AI-led automation, manufacturing output and job creation.
  • AI and skills response
    Speaker 1 argues for embracing AI, semiconductor development and youth skilling with human oversight.
  • Youth empowerment discussion
    Speaker 2 asks how future opportunities are conveyed to young people; Speaker 1 cites digital connectivity and startups.
  • Audience Q&A begins
    Questions begin on cities, quality, shipping, WTO, investment protections and FTA use.
  • Urban infrastructure response
    Speaker 1 discusses new-city models, Mumbai 4.0 and transport infrastructure.
  • Quality and competitiveness response
    Speaker 1 emphasizes quality, mutual recognition and scale as competitive foundations.
  • Shipping and exports
    Speaker 1 addresses vessel flagging, shipping connectivity and the $1 trillion export target.
  • Investment protection update
    Speaker 1 says the model BIT is under review.
  • Comprehensive FTA utilization
    Speaker 1 describes trade agreements as broad platforms beyond goods and services.

Decisions made

No explicit final decision was identified.

Proposals & suggestions (not confirmed decisions)

  • PAFI should start a centre in Delhi to develop AI-skilled talent for regulatory and cross-border information work. — suggested by Speaker 1. Outcome: No final decision recorded.
  • India should develop newer cities through both entirely new-city models and expansion connected to existing urban centres. — proposed by Speaker 1. Outcome: Presented as Speaker 1’s preferred urban-development approach; no formal decision recorded.
  • Countries with recognized high-quality systems should enter mutual-recognition arrangements with India for quality standards and laboratories. — proposed by Speaker 1. Outcome: Speaker 1 said this had been offered to the UK and EU; no agreement outcome recorded.
  • India should negotiate multilaterally to build a future-oriented WTO. — proposed by Speaker 4. Outcome: Speaker 1 did not support the near-term premise, arguing that a new body is difficult when consensus cannot be reached within the existing WTO.

Action items

ActionOwnerDeadlineTime
Continue work on maritime regulatory reforms intended to encourage vessels to be flagged in India.Speaker 1Not specified
Review the model BIT in light of investor expectations regarding dispute resolution.Not specifiedNot specified
Promote utilization of FTAs and broader comprehensive partnerships.Not specifiedNot specified

Topics discussed

Opening and FTA landscape

to 00:19:50 Speaker 1, Speaker 2, Speaker 3

Speaker 2 opened the session and Speaker 3 sought an overview of India’s multiple FTAs. Speaker 1 contrasted past trade agreements with the current negotiating approach, cited completed, near-complete and ongoing negotiations, and described the potential global GDP coverage of the agreements.

Competitiveness, AI, employment and skilling

to 00:31:53 Speaker 1, Speaker 3

Speaker 3 raised the risk that automation could lower manufacturing labour intensity and argued for much higher production to sustain job creation. Speaker 1 said India will adopt AI, develop semiconductor capacity, skill youth, expand cybersecurity capabilities and retain human validation over AI outputs.

Youth empowerment and startup ecosystem

to 00:37:10 Speaker 1, Speaker 2, Speaker 3

Speaker 2 asked how Speaker 1 communicates future opportunities to young people. Speaker 1 said youth are informed and empowered through Digital India, connectivity, electricity, smartphones, Startup India and freedom to aspire; Speaker 1 cited startup and unicorn figures.

Audience questions: cities, quality, shipping, WTO, investment and FTA utilization

to 00:45:13 Speaker 1, Speaker 2, Speaker 3, Speaker 4, Speaker 5, Speaker 6

Audience members asked about the role of cities, quality versus L1 procurement and cost arbitrage, maritime shipping connectivity, a future WTO, dispute-resolution mechanisms for investors, and using FTAs to build global value chains.

Urban development and infrastructure

to 00:53:26 Speaker 1

Speaker 1 responded to the cities question by supporting development of new cities and expansion beyond existing urban cores. Mumbai infrastructure, the Atal Setu, Navi Mumbai Airport connectivity, Mumbai 4.0 and a 59-minute travel-time objective within Mumbai were cited as examples.

Quality, market access and competitiveness

to 00:59:34 Speaker 1

Speaker 1 said quality is essential and challenged businesses seeking exemptions from quality-related requirements. Speaker 1 proposed mutual-recognition arrangements with countries that maintain high standards and argued that regulatory burdens in Europe may create opportunities for India.

Shipping, export target, WTO and investment protection

to 01:04:41 Speaker 1, Speaker 3, Speaker 5

Speaker 1 addressed shipping connectivity through Indian vessel flagging and regulatory reform, announced a $1 trillion export target, dismissed immediate prospects for replacing the WTO with a new body, and said the model BIT is under review.

FTA utilization and comprehensive partnerships

to 01:07:38 Speaker 1, Speaker 3, Speaker 5

Speaker 1 agreed that FTA utilization needs promotion and described trade agreements as comprehensive arrangements extending beyond goods and services to technology, investment, education, standards, AI, critical minerals, defence and related cooperation.

Important questions

  • Where are India’s multiple FTAs, and which ones are likely to close or progress next? — asked by Speaker 3
    Answered Speaker 1 described nine agreements, including the United States as “almost done and dusted,” and listed ongoing or planned engagement with Canada, Chile, Peru, SACU, Mexico, Maldives, Eurasia/Central Asia/Russia, GCC and Israel. Speaker 1 estimated existing access at $70 trillion of GDP and potential additional access of $15 trillion.
  • What must government and industry do to become hypercompetitive, create jobs and benefit from trade agreements amid automation? — asked by Speaker 3
    Answered Speaker 1 said India should embrace AI, invest in semiconductor and AI ecosystems, skill youth, strengthen cybersecurity capabilities, and ensure human validation of AI output.
  • How is the future opportunity being communicated to India’s youth? — asked by Speaker 2
    Answered Speaker 1 said young people are already informed through digital connectivity and can judge opportunities themselves; Speaker 1 cited electricity access, connectivity, smartphones, Startup India and deep-tech promotion as enabling measures.
  • What is the role of cities in advancing the economy, and how can business support it? — asked by Speaker 4
    Answered Speaker 1 said urban populations will grow and advocated both entirely new cities and connected urban expansion, illustrating the point with Mumbai infrastructure and the Mumbai 4.0 concept. The business-support element was not specifically addressed.
  • How can India transition from L1 and cost arbitrage to quality for exports and domestic consumers? — asked by Speaker 5
    Answered Speaker 1 said quality is essential, rejected requests for exemptions from quality processes, and advocated mutual-recognition arrangements with high-quality jurisdictions. Speaker 1 also cited scale, trusted geography and regulatory conditions as sources of competitiveness.
  • What is being done to address limited direct shipping routes and long delivery times to markets such as Mexico and Venezuela? — asked by Speaker 4
    Answered Speaker 1 acknowledged direct shipping routes as a challenge and said reforms are under way to encourage Indian-flagged vessels; Speaker 1 linked stronger shipping routes to increased export scale and vessel flagging.
  • Should India negotiate for a future-oriented WTO? — asked by Speaker 4
    Answered Speaker 1 said creating a new body is difficult when consensus cannot be achieved within the current WTO, describing the idea as logically problematic in the present context.
  • How is India balancing regulatory autonomy with credible dispute-resolution mechanisms for long-term investors? — asked by Speaker 6
    Answered Speaker 1 said India has a model BIT that may not meet the expectations of parts of the investment community and that it is being reviewed; Speaker 1 expected a revised version could support more bilateral investment treaties with developed nations.
  • How can India and businesses use trade deals to develop industrial supply chains and enter global value chains, rather than treat them only as import-export mechanisms?
    Answered Speaker 1 agreed that utilization must be promoted and said modern agreements encompass goods, services, technology, investment, tourism, education, quality standards, professional services, AI, critical minerals, defence and information-sharing.

Important numbers & facts

  • 2014 — Speaker 1 used this as the dividing point in contrasting prior trade-policy approaches with the current approach.
  • $10 trillion — Speaker 1 said India’s pre-2014 agreements collectively provided preferential access to economies totaling this GDP level, using current/last-year figures.
  • 06/01/2019 — Speaker 1 said they became commerce minister on this date.
  • January 5 to April 2 — Speaker 1 said the Australia trade negotiation ran from the first post-COVID meeting on January 5 to signing on April 2.
  • $300 million — Speaker 1 described bilateral trade with New Zealand at the relevant time as “300 odd million dollars.”
  • $4 trillion — Speaker 1 described India as a $4 trillion economy.
  • $20 trillion — Speaker 1 said India was already a $20 trillion economy on a PPP basis and the world’s third largest on that basis.
  • $30 trillion — Speaker 1 said India would become a $30 trillion economy and framed FTAs as future-oriented.
  • 2047 — Speaker 1 repeatedly referenced the goal of making India a developed nation by 2047.
  • 9 agreements — Speaker 1 said nine agreements, including the United States, were collectively providing preferential market access.
  • $60 trillion — Speaker 1 said the nine agreements collectively gave preferential market access to this GDP amount.
  • $70 trillion — Speaker 1 described a $70 trillion umbrella in which goods could flow seamlessly when combined with prior access.
  • $15 trillion — Speaker 1 estimated the potential GDP access from further negotiations.
  • 75% of global GDP — Speaker 1 said India would be connected to 75% of global GDP through the agreements and negotiations described.
  • $150 billion — Speaker 1 projected annual Indian semiconductor demand could exceed this amount within five years.
  • 5 years — Speaker 1’s stated timeframe for semiconductor demand to exceed $150 billion annually.
  • 10 million youth — Speaker 1 said the Prime Minister spoke about skilling this number of youth in AI.
  • 11 years — Speaker 1 said Startup India was launched 11 years ago.
  • 400–500 startups — Speaker 1 said India had this number of startups when Startup India was launched.
  • Over 120 unicorns — Speaker 1 said India has over 120 unicorns, adding that the figure had reached 130 before some faced stress.
  • 22 kilometres — Speaker 1 described the length of the Atal Setu bridge connecting Mumbai’s island city to the mainland.
  • 50 years — Speaker 1 said the Atal Setu project had been conceptualized fifty years earlier.
  • 30 minutes — Speaker 1 said the intended travel time from Nepean Sea Road to Navi Mumbai Airport would be thirty minutes once final connectivity is complete.
  • 59 minutes maximum — Speaker 1 stated Mumbai’s travel-time objective as under one hour from any point to any other point in the city.
  • ₹12 lakh crore every year — Speaker 1 said the central government has massive plans for annual infrastructure spending at this level.
  • 73 regulations — Speaker 1 said their office had tracked 73 EU regulations as of the last round.
  • $100 billion — Speaker 1 said EFTA committed to invest this amount, and described the commitment as a condition for signing.
  • $20 billion — Speaker 1 said New Zealand has an investment commitment at this level.
  • 5 years — Speaker 1 said the UK gave India a five-year social-security agreement.
  • 14 vessels — Speaker 1 said the CEO of the world’s largest shipping company had messaged that the company was reflagging 14 vessels in India.
  • $1 trillion — Speaker 1 set this as the current-year target for total exports.
  • $863 billion — Speaker 1 described this as the previous record total export value.
  • 2,000 — Speaker 1 said an expression of interest had been received from the world’s largest shipping company to invest “2,000”; the unit or currency was unclear in the transcript.
  • 25,000 seafarers — Speaker 1 said the shipping company already had 25,000 seafarers of Indian origin.
  • 250,000 employees — Speaker 1 said the shipping company had 250,000 employees.
  • Half a million seafarers — Speaker 1 said the company wanted India to provide at least this number of seafarers to the world in five to seven years.
  • Five to seven years — Speaker 1 gave this timeframe for the goal of providing at least half a million Indian seafarers to global shipping lines.
  • 1 million seafarers — Speaker 1 stated India’s target for seafarers serving the rest of the world.

Speaker highlights

Speaker 1

Main points

  • Outlined a trade strategy centered on confidence, scale and fair, equitable and balanced agreements.
  • Said India should embrace AI, build semiconductor and cybersecurity capabilities, and skill young people while retaining human review of AI outputs.
  • Highlighted digital connectivity, Startup India, deep tech and private-sector space activity as evidence of youth opportunity.
  • Addressed audience questions on cities, quality, shipping connectivity, WTO reform, model BIT review and FTA utilization.
  • Presented infrastructure, quality, economies of scale, trusted investment conditions and comprehensive trade partnerships as drivers of competitiveness.

Positions

  • India should not avoid new technologies such as AI.
  • Human judgment must be applied before using AI-generated content.
  • New and expanded cities, supported by infrastructure, are important to economic growth.
  • Quality should not be compromised for low-cost procurement or administrative convenience.
  • FTAs should be leveraged for broad global-value-chain and institutional partnerships, not only import-export flows.
  • A new WTO is difficult to construct while consensus is lacking within the current WTO.

Commitments

  • Stated that the government is working on maritime regulatory reforms to make India an attractive vessel-flagging registry.
  • Stated that the model BIT is being reviewed.
  • Stated a $1 trillion current-year export target.
  • Said the government is seeking to promote FTA utilization and wider partnerships.

Questions raised

  • Asked the audience whether an India-China FTA through RCEP would have been beneficial.
  • Asked businesses to pursue mutual-recognition agreements with India if they seek exemptions from Indian quality-related processes.

Speaker 2

Main points

  • Opened and moderated the session.
  • Introduced Speaker 1 and framed the session as interactive.
  • Asked how opportunities and policy direction are communicated to young people.
  • Managed audience questions and the remaining time.

Questions raised

  • How is Speaker 1 communicating to youth that current policy efforts and opportunities are for them?

Speaker 3

Main points

  • Requested an overview of the FTA landscape.
  • Raised the relationship between technology-driven productivity, job creation and the need to expand output.
  • Moderated the audience interaction and noted Speaker 1’s time constraint.

Positions

  • India needs to become exceptionally competitive in order to create jobs and take advantage of trade agreements.
  • Automation and AI may reduce labour intensity in manufacturing, making production growth necessary for job creation.

Questions raised

  • What must government and industry do to become hypercompetitive and address both employment and trade challenges?

Speaker 4

Main points

  • Asked about the role of cities in advancing the economy and how PAFI, business and enterprise can contribute.
  • Asked how India can shift from cost arbitrage and L1 procurement toward quality for exports and domestic consumers.
  • Raised the possibility of negotiating a future-oriented WTO framework.
  • Also asked a question about direct shipping connectivity and trade-route delays; the diarization attributes this intervention to Speaker 4.

Positions

  • Improving quality could materially support India’s growth story.
  • A future-oriented WTO may be needed because the current WTO is not functioning, in the speaker’s view.
  • Limited direct shipping routes can harm exporters when goods arrive too late.

Questions raised

  • What role should cities play in advancing India’s economy, and how can business support this?
  • How can India make the mental transition from cost arbitrage and L1 toward quality?
  • Should India negotiate multilaterally for a WTO designed for the future?
  • What is being done about direct shipping connectivity to markets such as Mexico and Venezuela?

Speaker 5

Main points

  • Identified themselves as Rakesh Dhube from Carlisle and asked about the quality transition.
  • Briefly characterized the session’s message as being hungry and competitive at the close.

Questions raised

  • How can India shift from cost arbitrage to quality in export and domestic markets?

Speaker 6

Main points

  • Asked about balancing regulatory autonomy with credible, competitive investment dispute-resolution mechanisms in recent agreements.

Positions

  • Investment dispute resolution has been an Achilles’ heel, according to the question.

Questions raised

  • How is the government balancing regulatory autonomy with credible and competitive dispute-resolution mechanisms for long-term investment?

Follow-ups

  • Clarify the status, scope and expected timing of the stated United States agreement and other negotiations mentioned by Speaker 1.
  • Assess how PAFI or other stakeholders could support AI-skilling initiatives, including Speaker 1’s suggestion of a centre in Delhi. (PAFI)
  • Develop a clearer engagement pathway for business participation in city development and urban-infrastructure priorities; the question was only partly addressed.
  • Track progress on maritime regulatory reform, Indian vessel flagging and their effect on direct shipping connectivity.
  • Monitor the revised model BIT and implications for investment dispute resolution.
  • Develop practical mechanisms to improve business utilization of FTAs and use agreements to deepen global value-chain participation.